Tuesday, June 23, 2009
John C. Dvorak, Professional Know Nothing Idiot
Professional Windows Shill, Technology Know-Nothing, John C. Dvorak, stated in 2007 that Apple should "unplug" the iPhone. Fast forward to now, where Apple has announced it sold six million iPhone 3GS units in the first week.
This is why people don't listen to you, idiot. Apple did it their way, and easily has 10% (worldwide) market share in under a year. Motorola is looking at failing out of the phone business, and Verizon has nothing but blackberries, sad imitations, and paying lobbyists to talk up anti-trust claims.
Got any predictions for Bing.com, John?
The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough. These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.
And its survival in the computer business relies on good margins. Those margins cannot exist in the mobile handset business for more than 15 minutes.
This is why people don't listen to you, idiot. Apple did it their way, and easily has 10% (worldwide) market share in under a year. Motorola is looking at failing out of the phone business, and Verizon has nothing but blackberries, sad imitations, and paying lobbyists to talk up anti-trust claims.
Got any predictions for Bing.com, John?
Labels: 2007 Predictions, apple, crazy people, links, Mac OS X
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Sys-Con and Predictions for the upcoming year of technology
Sys-Con.com's article on their java center deals with predictions for the IT world in 2007. They've asked several java and web experts to predict what are going to be the trends of 2007. I thought I'd go through some of the more interesting ones and provide what would pass for my insight.
This is going to happen. It may not be Ruby on Rails. It may be Python and Django. It won't achive majority in 2007, but it will start to be recognized as the next thing. It will no longer be viewed as ".Net vs. J2EE". It will now be viewed as "J2EE or .NET vs. RoR/Django/Turbogears/etc".
I don't think this is going to happen in the slightest. The tech culture is filled with hype. And really, AJAX is just beginning to take off. AJAX frameworks are still struggling to adapt to things like mobile applications, for use on people's cell phones. The newer browsers, IE7, and the upcoming Firefox 3.0, are going to allow AJAX to continue to shine, and shine brightly. Tools are going to further incorporare AJAX, and it will increasingly become part of a user's web experience, for better or for worse. We will no doubt see the same kind of errors made in DHTML, back around the turn of the decade. (You know, when HTML and Javascript was called DHTML, not "AJAX").
This quote came from DAVID HEINEMEIER HANSSON, the creator of the Rails web app framework. As much as I love macs, I'm labeling this one "arrogant mac user bullshit." Large companies will continue to use windows for web development, and there is hardly a case where enough programmers could justify the cost of switching over to their bosses in such a way that it would fly. Since they don't have the power to change it, they will simply accept it. While the majority of us don't have jobs where we work on cool projects like basecamp and drink expensive coffee with our mac book pros (as I type this on my mac tower, drinking coffee) we also account for a significant amount of the IT infrastructed developed and maintained every year.
Still, its nice that for once, many of my co-workers feel the need to save up and purchase a mac book pro. I'm glad I no longer have to mention "Mac User" in the same quiet, unobtrusive voice I would use to say "grew up around the amish in central pa."
I simply disagree. Corporations have put a lot of web front ends out there, which are tweaked to work it IE6 and Firefox. A lot of them have to go through compatibility testing before they do large scale rollouts for IE7. I know mine advises us NOT to use it just yet for things like PeopleSoft.
I also think people forget that there are probably more pirated copies of windows xp out there than legitimate. The majority of companies probably hold the legit licenses. The botnets that are responsible for flooding my inbox with spam are likely running some unpatched pirated variant that won't verify as genuine to get IE7. Firefox will continue to provide a modern web browsing experience for the individuals that use those machines.
I strongly disagree. Apple's hardware is the evermore spoken of as geeky envy hardware. Want to run unix programs, mac os x programs, and windows program all at the same time? OS X is really your only option for the trifecta. Apple's get a mac campaign is finally starting to resonate with more and more people. Apple is braching out its corporate purchase plans, making it feasible to run Mac at home and leave windows at the office. Apple also appeals to the boastful family man: Want to share home movies and family photos with relatives, with no hassle? Apple has a solution with its iLife and .Mac software. Now you can photocast the pictures of little Billy's first karate tournament to co-workers and family alike. And no virii, spyware, and a one-click activation for your firewall? Toss in the bonus of how awesome iChat's video conference capabilities are, and you find one very attractive package that "just works" for the non-techie and a user experience windows currently cannot compete with.
This has been predicted every year since someone coined the phrase and invented RDF. This year doesn't look to be any different. Next, please.
Again, an overstatement. What's the difference between Google Docs and Microsoft Office 2004 for OS X? If my internet connection goes down, I can keep working on my "Great American Novel" and none of my work is lost. Traditional software will still have its place. AJAX makes client-server a lot more attractive, but I don't expect AJAX to deliver a Photoshop CS3 killer anytime soon.
Yeah, that's a given.
This is also true. Windows will become the game OS. You will only want Vista for DirectX 10.0. If my girlfriend doesn't want to get a mac, I'll probably help her transition to Ubuntu Linux. OS X and Linux serve an end user's need just as well as windows. Yes, you're trading one set of headaches (spyware) for another (driver support). But one is a mere one-time set up hassle (finding and configuring drivers for any unsupported out of the box hardware), while the other is an ongoing, never ending assault.
Please note that I have previously published a guest column on Sys-Com.com on my "sister blog", The Robot's Soapbox which informed college students that their life ambition after graduating college should be to avoid workplaces that force their employees to work in cubicles. This generated some controversy.
1. Incremental mainstream adoption of Ruby on Rails.
This is going to happen. It may not be Ruby on Rails. It may be Python and Django. It won't achive majority in 2007, but it will start to be recognized as the next thing. It will no longer be viewed as ".Net vs. J2EE". It will now be viewed as "J2EE or .NET vs. RoR/Django/Turbogears/etc".
2. A slowdown in the AJAX hype.
I don't think this is going to happen in the slightest. The tech culture is filled with hype. And really, AJAX is just beginning to take off. AJAX frameworks are still struggling to adapt to things like mobile applications, for use on people's cell phones. The newer browsers, IE7, and the upcoming Firefox 3.0, are going to allow AJAX to continue to shine, and shine brightly. Tools are going to further incorporare AJAX, and it will increasingly become part of a user's web experience, for better or for worse. We will no doubt see the same kind of errors made in DHTML, back around the turn of the decade. (You know, when HTML and Javascript was called DHTML, not "AJAX").
3. Apple will continue to trounce everyone else for the preferred geek platform. The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.
This quote came from DAVID HEINEMEIER HANSSON, the creator of the Rails web app framework. As much as I love macs, I'm labeling this one "arrogant mac user bullshit." Large companies will continue to use windows for web development, and there is hardly a case where enough programmers could justify the cost of switching over to their bosses in such a way that it would fly. Since they don't have the power to change it, they will simply accept it. While the majority of us don't have jobs where we work on cool projects like basecamp and drink expensive coffee with our mac book pros (as I type this on my mac tower, drinking coffee) we also account for a significant amount of the IT infrastructed developed and maintained every year.
Still, its nice that for once, many of my co-workers feel the need to save up and purchase a mac book pro. I'm glad I no longer have to mention "Mac User" in the same quiet, unobtrusive voice I would use to say "grew up around the amish in central pa."
4. IE 7 will have a fast adoption curve and so Firefox will cease gaining market share.
I simply disagree. Corporations have put a lot of web front ends out there, which are tweaked to work it IE6 and Firefox. A lot of them have to go through compatibility testing before they do large scale rollouts for IE7. I know mine advises us NOT to use it just yet for things like PeopleSoft.
I also think people forget that there are probably more pirated copies of windows xp out there than legitimate. The majority of companies probably hold the legit licenses. The botnets that are responsible for flooding my inbox with spam are likely running some unpatched pirated variant that won't verify as genuine to get IE7. Firefox will continue to provide a modern web browsing experience for the individuals that use those machines.
5. Apple will no longer gain market share for its desktops and will stabilize at its current meaningless level.
I strongly disagree. Apple's hardware is the evermore spoken of as geeky envy hardware. Want to run unix programs, mac os x programs, and windows program all at the same time? OS X is really your only option for the trifecta. Apple's get a mac campaign is finally starting to resonate with more and more people. Apple is braching out its corporate purchase plans, making it feasible to run Mac at home and leave windows at the office. Apple also appeals to the boastful family man: Want to share home movies and family photos with relatives, with no hassle? Apple has a solution with its iLife and .Mac software. Now you can photocast the pictures of little Billy's first karate tournament to co-workers and family alike. And no virii, spyware, and a one-click activation for your firewall? Toss in the bonus of how awesome iChat's video conference capabilities are, and you find one very attractive package that "just works" for the non-techie and a user experience windows currently cannot compete with.
6. The rise of the Semantic Web
This has been predicted every year since someone coined the phrase and invented RDF. This year doesn't look to be any different. Next, please.
7. The success of AJAX drives traditional software back to the drawing boards.
Again, an overstatement. What's the difference between Google Docs and Microsoft Office 2004 for OS X? If my internet connection goes down, I can keep working on my "Great American Novel" and none of my work is lost. Traditional software will still have its place. AJAX makes client-server a lot more attractive, but I don't expect AJAX to deliver a Photoshop CS3 killer anytime soon.
8. New Crop of AJAX Productivity Applications
Yeah, that's a given.
9. Microsoft Vista Launch Will Boost Sales of Other OSes
This is also true. Windows will become the game OS. You will only want Vista for DirectX 10.0. If my girlfriend doesn't want to get a mac, I'll probably help her transition to Ubuntu Linux. OS X and Linux serve an end user's need just as well as windows. Yes, you're trading one set of headaches (spyware) for another (driver support). But one is a mere one-time set up hassle (finding and configuring drivers for any unsupported out of the box hardware), while the other is an ongoing, never ending assault.
Please note that I have previously published a guest column on Sys-Com.com on my "sister blog", The Robot's Soapbox which informed college students that their life ambition after graduating college should be to avoid workplaces that force their employees to work in cubicles. This generated some controversy.
Labels: 2007 Predictions, AJAX, Mac OS X, Sys-Con.com, Web Development
